Welcome to part two of our Oscar picks! Here’s part one in case you missed it: Oscars 2026 — Who Should Win? (Part One)
Remember, these aren’t the movies that will win, these are the movies that should win. Here are our picks for Best Actress and Best Actor…
Best Actress
Emma Stone — Bugonia
Kate Hudson — Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve — Sentimental Value
Rose Byrne — If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Jessie Buckley — Hamnet
This is the strongest category of the night. Everyone here is worthy of the nomination and could win in a less competitive year. Unfortunately for Emma Stone, this is a very competitive year. It’s easy to forget that Stone has five acting Oscar nominations. She’s been consistently doing great work for years. Bugonia is tailor-made for her talents, not just emotionally but physically as well. With her shaved head and unique features, she looks like the very alien Jesse Plemons claims she is. Is she? That’s the question at the heart of the story, and Stone keeps us guessing from start to finish.
Kate Hudson should have won an Oscar for Almost Famous, and she’ll be stiffed again her second time nominated. But hopefully the attention will cause more people to see her inspiring performance in Song Sung Blue. Hudson’s Claire has a joyful innocence that wins us over from her opening scene just like Hugh Jackman’s Mike. And that really is her voice singing Neil Diamond’s songs. However, the most compelling part of her arc is when misfortune comes calling. The light flickers out of her eyes for a moment as anyone’s would, but then we see her find that spark all over again. Welcome back to the Oscars, Kate. We missed you.
In any other year, Renata Reinsve would be the front-runner to win the gold for Sentimental Value. Her performance provides the world-weary weight the movie needs. Just like her dad, Nora is a bundle of contradictions. On stage, she’s emotionally honest and vulnerable. Off stage, she’s angry and impenetrable. That’s a difficult contrast to pull off and Reinsve nails it. She manages to make Nora sympathetic and unlikable at the same time. We understand why she’s in pain, but we also want her to stop punishing everyone around her including herself. That’s what makes the ending so cathartic. She looks at her father and he looks back. They don’t need words. Their faces say it all.
Rose Byrne is known for her comedies. If I had Legs I’d Kick You is not a comedy; it’s a horror movie. The real kind. Byrne’s Linda is falling apart at the seams. Her husband is away and her child is sick, requiring constant care and attention. Attention that Linda resents. She didn’t sign up for this, and she wants her life back. Byrne is absolutely mesmerizing. She carries the movie on her shoulders in every scene. We want to look away, but we can’t. It’s an unhinged, terrifying performance devoid of any pretense or glamour. At one point, Linda stuffs mountains of greasy pizza into her mouth while her child asks for help from the next room. She keeps eating, her eyes dead. Every parent can relate.
Jessie Buckley delivers not just the best performance of the year in Hamnet, but one of the best I’ve ever seen. Agnes is a woman in the world but not of the world. That’s why Shakespeare is attracted to her. When we first meet her, she’s sleeping in the grass. When she gets up, she summons a hawk. This is a woman deeply in tune with nature who has no time for trivialities. That alone would have made an interesting character, but then tragedy strikes and we see a whole new layer emerge. The raw pain that Buckley expresses in these scenes took my breath away. Our heart breaks with her in real time. I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen such a gut-wrenching display of grief on screen. And then there’s the final scene at the theater where she conveys what feels like the entire spectrum of human emotion with only her face. It’s astonishing work and the epitome of Oscar-worthy.
Best Actor
Ethan Hawke — Blue Moon
Wagner Moura — The Secret Agent
Leonardo DiCaprio — One Battle After Another
Michael B. Jordan — Sinners
Timothée Chalamet — Marty Supreme
I wanted to love Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon. I really did. There’s nothing like seeing an actor take a big swing and do something they’ve never done before. But something about the performance just doesn’t work. It’s too performative. Too on the nose. Too everything. I didn’t feel like I was watching an actual person. I felt like I was watching Ethan Hawke play a person. And for a duo known for dialogue-heavy collaborations, Linklater and Hawke have never sounded this forced and unnatural. Clearly the Academy disagrees.
Wagner Moura was the perfect leading man for The Secret Agent. I’ve only seen him in supporting roles until now, so it was great to see him take the lead. His command of the screen was effortless, and I hope this nomination leads to more of those opportunities. That said, was this one of the five best performances of the year? I don’t think so. Every Oscar performance needs at least one moment that transcends the screen and taps into us at the soul level. Moura’s performance didn’t provide one for me.
I feel the same about Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another. On the one hand, this is DiCaprio’s most entertaining performances in years. He’s been funny before, but not like this. DiCaprio’s Bob Ferguson used to be a true revolutionary, but now he’s a washed up imitation of one — high as a kite and fumbling around at a time when the stakes couldn’t be higher. He was a joy to watch throughout, but the performance still felt superficial. Similar to Moura’s Marcelo, I was thoroughly engaged with the character but never spellbound. This feels more like a legacy nomination than one truly earned.
Michael B. Jordan is the first actor in this category that deserves to be here. I feel bad for him that Timothée Chalamet is a lock to win. I’m sure the thought crossed his mind at least once: what more do I have to do? After all, in Sinners he’s playing not one character but two. Twin brothers with completely different looks, personalities, and mannerisms. That’s a difficult assignment for any actor to take on and Jordan kills it. They’re both fun roles to watch, but also stacked with layers of injustice and sadness. The Smoke Stack twins aren’t noble characters. They’re willing to cheat, steal, and kill to accomplish their goals. But we also understand the forces of oppression at work which hardened their hearts and made them the criminals they are. That’s what makes their moral compromises all the more heartbreaking.
I’ll be the first to admit that I underestimated Timothée Chalamet. He first appeared in teenage supporting roles and while he always fit the part, we needed something more. Call Me By Your Name proved he could act. Dune proved he could lead. Marty Supreme proves he’s one of the greats. This is a career-defining performance. A tour de force. And he’s only 30 years old. Chalamet’s greatest trick is making a petulant narcissist like Marty a likable character we actually root for. He wins us over with his charisma and sheer, unbridled audacity. And yet, the damage he leaves behind is considerable. Marty uses anyone and everyone as he bounces around from one scheme to the next. All that matters is winning. Empathy is for losers. If only he could run for President. Every door in Hollywood is now unlocked for Chalamet. What will he do next?
To Be Continued…
Check back next week for part three of our Oscar coverage as we pick Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Screenplay!
